Australia is one of grappling's growing hotbeds and over the last ten years or so has really emerged, especially in no-gi and ADCC-style competitions. That's in part because of the way ADCC does their Trials, with Oceanic and Asian competitors getting their own regional competition without the North or South Americans - meaning that Australians get a more direct path to qualifying for Worlds.

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In the past, that meant going to ADCC, likely facing a top-3 seed first round, and losing before you got a chance to get deep into the bracket. Those days are largely over, though, as Asian Trials winners and Australian grapplers continue to over-perform on the biggest stage. A record five Trials winners from this cycle are ranked top-15 in the world - these are World class athletes in their own right.

These last ten years have seen big rises to the elite levels by athletes like Lachlan Giles & Craig Jones, both of whom were able to medal. Still, Australia has never had an ADCC Champion. Could that change in 2024? Let's look at the list of athletes who will be representing the country.

The Australians Competing At ADCC 2024

1. Ethan Thomas, -66kg Trials Winner

We're doing this in weight order so we begin with Ethan Thomas, who won the first Trials in what was the biggest performance of his grappling career to date. The Sydney West Martial Arts product is also an MMA fighter and brings a very MMA-influenced style to the mats - good takedowns, good in scrambles, and hard to hold down. Still, the wild looking scrapper will likely have a top seed first round given his lack of experience against the field.

2. Jeremy Skinner, -77kg Invitee

Jeremy was able to get back into the ADCC Worlds despite losing at Trials, and the former -66kg grappler is an interesting one at -77kg. He was able to make the quarterfinals in 2022 by beating AJ Agazarm before losing to Gabriel Sousa. Considering the field he will likely have another highly seeded grappler in 2024, can he recapture that upset magic?

3. Izaak Michell, -88kg Trials Winner

Without a doubt Izaak is one of Australia's best grapplers right now. The Who's Next Champion has displayed incredible wrestling, great passing (especially his loose passing), and aggressive pace that has made him one of the most exciting -88kg grapplers in the world. At the 2022 ADCC Worlds, he and eventual bronze medalist Vagner Rocha had the match of the tournament. This time, though, I think Michell can advance further and hope for more than just excitement - he is a real threat to medal.

4. Declan Moody, --99kg Trials Winner

Declan may be Australia's most underrated grappler on the World stage right now. The B-Team black belt used to compete at lighter weights and has done a good job translating most of that speed and scrambling ability up to -99kg. He also has stellar guard passing and back takes. He's one of the toughest Australians in the grappling world and will be a major problem for the top guys at ADCC.

5. Daniel Schuardt, -99kg Trials Winner

Daniel "The Man Child" is a really powerful grappler who has developed a nasty leg lock game over the last few years. He won Trials, has competed in AIGA against some good names, and has slowly been building himself up for moments like this. If he can find a good seed at ADCC, he could be a guy who pulls off an upset. Also interestingly - he's spending more and more time at New Wave.

6. Josh Saunders, +99kg Trials Winner

Josh is one of the coolest stories in grappling right now, in my opinion. He's a guy who has only been training for a few years and has built a very solid game that can contend at the World level. He's a real contender to medal at +99 with his mix of power, positioning, strategy, and cardio. I think anyone who beats him right now will need to be a top guy - and if things break right he may end up being the top guy himself.

7. Adele Fornarino, -55kg Trials Winner

Adele Fornarino is Australia's best female grappler right now, and considering how she's still young in her career she may go down as the nation's best one day. In fact, she's a real contender to win gold in Vegas in the -55kg division. "Daddy" won Trials in '22, went to Worlds, and lost to the eventual champion first round. I think it's fair to say she's one of the most evolved grapplers in that time, putting on great performances and beating grapplers like Amanda Alequin and Ana Rodrigues. Adele will be a major factor in the bracket at ADCC.

8. Nikki Lloyd-Griffiths, +65kg Trials Winner

NLG is back at ADCC. After winning Trials and competing at Worlds in 2022, Nikki repeated her Trials performance in 2024 - and looked better than ever. With her experience, she could be a name to shake up the +65kg division but that is a very tough medal stand to crack into.

Best Chances To Medal

1. Izaak Michell

2. Adele Fornarino

3. Josh Saunders

In my opinion, these three have the best chance at medaling or potentially winning ADCC - a first for Australia. I chose Izaak because I expect him to be seeded well and he already has key wins over guys in the division like Jacob Couch. I think he matches up ok with returning champion Bodoni as well, in that they have a pretty similar style that won't be easy for either to exploit.

I nearly chose Adele as the top pick here, because of how much momentum she is bringing into the event. She's capable of beating top grapplers very fast (owning the fastest women's submission in WNO history), she can go long and win a decision, and she is training with a great team at Dominance MMA & Atos. 2024 could be time for Adele and her "Daddy" energy, as she puts it.

Josh Saunders winning ADCC would be one of the craziest championship stories ever but it's a real option. Not only would he the first of his countrymen to do it, he would have only been training 4-5 years. Still, he's right there with so many of these guys to win and with just a few breaks going his way I think he medals.

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