The ADCC 2022 World Championships are, to our rampant excitement, just days away. All 97 athletes have been named to the six divisions and the singular historic superfight. But the brackets have not yet been revealed.

Throughout the next few weeks, we’ll be analyzing the roster of each division to try to make sense of some likely seeding permutations, and to make our best guess how each of these hypothetical brackets will play out.

NOTE: the brackets below are pure speculation of the FloGrappling staff, and have not been corroborated by ADCC officials.

The 77 kg division at the upcoming 2022 ADCC World Championships may be the most stacked division in the history of grappling competition. From the obvious top dog — two-time division winner [JT Torres] — all the way down to the no.16 seed (whoever that may be), any one of these athletes has a legitimate potential to take the podium.

A division this deep can be a blessing for spectators, but a curse for the event organizers who have to build out a bracket. There’s no telling who will be seeded above whom, but any amalgam with these athletes guarantees fan favorite matchups from the first round to the final.

But what will that bracket ultimately look like? 

Here’s our best guess.

It’s as sure a fact as anything about ADCC can be; JT Torres will be the no.1 seed in the 77 kg category. His back to back gold medals in 2017 and 2019 make him the man to beat, and a third sequential gold would make him the first American ever to three-peat in a single division at ADCC.

Certainty in seeding dwindles substantially from there. Lucas Lepri was a likely no.2 seed as a multiple time silver medalist in the 77 kg division. But his recent pull out from the tournament has left the division wide open.

Dante Leon is a safe bet for the no.2 spot, as he took fourth place in the division in 2019. Lachlan Giles, the 2019 bronze medalist in the absolute division, also has a claim to the second seed.

While Davi Ramos won the division in 2015 and could be considered the true two-seed, he is likely to be clustered in the same quadrant as Torres, as ADCC customs stipulate that teammates should fight no later than the quarterfinals.

Kade Ruotolo, the East Coast Trials winner, should join Torres and Ramos in the top corner of the bracket along with the no.16 seed.

In total, half of the members of this category have previous experience at ADCC.

Torres, Ramos, Giles and Leon have all been accounted for. Renato Canuto hit the quarterfinals in 2019 before losing a razor thin match of the year to Garry Tonon. Oliver Taza went one and out in both 2017 and 2019. Kenta Iwamoto lost in the opening round in 2019 in the 66 kg category. And Nicky Ryan made his debut in 2017, then the youngest-ever ADCC competitor, losing his opening round. He returned in 2019 to win his first match before falling in the second round.

That leaves eight newcomers, many of whom may be seeded higher than the returning vets.

William Tackett won the deepest division in the deepest ADCC trials to-date. He won seven matches to capture his ticket to ADCC. He lost in an earlier trials to Kade Ruotolo, who will also be making his debut.

Brazilian phenom Mica Galvao had a 100% submission rate at the 1st South American Trials, and averaged slightly more than 60-seconds of mat time per match. With ADCC gold this year, Galvao could become the youngest champion in history.

Andy Varela and PJ Barch performed exceptionally well at the West Coast Trials, while Magid Hage competed in four of the seven ADCC trials and made it to the finals in one.

Roberto Jimenez won the 2nd South American Trials with a dominant performance, tearing through the entire bracket.

Tommy Langaker defied expectations, competing in no-gi for a rare occasion in his career and demonstrating outstanding wrestling instincts.

Each of these athletes’ journeys to ADCC are unique, so a true, objective seeding is next to impossible. But some intricacies in the ADCC bracketing regulations give us some hints as to how this bracket will shape up.

Under ADCC rules, teammates must fight no later than the second round — the quarterfinals. That means Barch and Varela, both of whom represent 10th Planet, will be in the same quadrant of the bracket.

Tackett and Canuto, Checkmat teammates, are also destined to fight in the second round.

As mentioned above, Ramos, Torres, and Ruotolo, will share the top quadrant of the bracket under the Atos banner.

Best bet: Magid Hage will join the Atos corner of the division, as Hage was a late replacement to the division, and could be considered the 16-seed. Then, the top corner would look like this:

Lachlan Giles’ absolute bronze medal may earn him a shot at a trials winner. That would be vindication for the Australian, who has spent his career as the longshot Oceania & Asia Trials winner fed to the established ADCC veteran. He may have his opportunity on the other side of that matchup as the no.2 seed against no.15, Iwamoto.

The remaining two on that side would have to be athletes from the middle of the pack of 16, perhaps Oliver Taza and Mica Galvao.

If Dante Leon’s fourth place finish is enough to amount for a no.3 seed, fans could be in for an all time slugfest between him and Tommy Langaker, the plausible no.14 seed. That would leave Roberto Jimenez and Nicky Ryan as the only two athletes without a team dependency. That matchup, anticipated for years, could finally come to fruition in the very first round of ADCC. Where better?

It’s possible that the final quadrant of the bracket is fought between Checkmat and 10th Planet. Tackett and Canuto have claims to high seeds, while Varela and Barch earned their invitations late in the season, and could be considered lower seeds. 

If this initial prediction is right, here is how the division will shape out:

It’s possible, of course — even probable — that the actual bracket seeding will be different. Varela and Tackett faced each other in the final of the West Coast Trials, and ADCC organizers may try to prevent that rematch from happening in the first round. Galvao and Taza faced at WNO last year. Nicky Ryan had a dominant victory over Dante Leon in the ADCC ruleset at FloGrappling’s Road To ADCC in 2021, and that may have helped him in the seeding charts.

With all of those factors come a massive potential of permutations to this bracket. But one thing is certain: with a division this star-studded, there will be no shortage of historic, iconic, and career-defining matches.