This is not the first time we’ve done a Hardship Index for a major IBJJF tournament. We want to make sure that the analysis is based completely on stats rather than personal opinion. 

To determine how tough a black belt division is we count the number of World, Pan, Brazilian National and European champions in the bracket and score it using the below points values: 

• 5 for World Championship gold medal
• 4 for Pan gold medal 
• 3 for Brazilian Nationals and Euros gold medal

Each qualifying athlete gets just one score, based on their highest profile and most recent medal. For example, Bruno Malfacine does not get 50 points for his 10 world titles– he gets five. 

If a competitor’s medal is over five years old, we give it a 0.75 value. To explain, Tarsis Humphreys is a 2010 World champion– as such, his score is 3.75 and not the full 5. For competitors whose highest profile medal is over 10 years old, we reduce the point value to 0.5. Omar Salum was World champ in 2000, so his score is 2.5. 

By looking at the number of champions in each division, we are able to offer a completely objective view of the black belt landscape. 

Read on for the list of divisions, ranked by difficulty: 

Light-featherweight: 16

The score says that this is the least competitive division, and it's not just true on paper. All of the athletes who contributed to this score are from the same team: Hiago George, Tiago Barros, and Joao and Paulo Miyao, all from Cicero Costha. 

There's even a chance that they could close out the entire division as they're placed on opposite corners of the bracket– it would be possible for all four teammates to meet in the semifinals and decide how the podium looks based on gentlemen's agreements, which would be unprecedented for a World Championships. We can only hope this doesn't happen. 

Ultra-heavyweight: 19

Buchecha has had ultra-heavyweight on lockdown since 2012, only missing out on a medal in 2015 when he injured his knee in a match with Ricardo Evangelista. Aside from that blip, the division has belonged to him, and the low overall score reflects the lack of challengers. 

Joao Gabriel Rocha poses the biggest threat and this year the bracket has placed them so that they should meet in a semifinal. On the opposite side are Pan champs Ricardo Evangelista, Euro/Brazilian champ Victor Honorio and Brazilian champ Luis 'Duzao" Lopes. 

Lightweight: 22

Two World champions (Lucas Lepri and Michael Langhi), a Pan champion (Levi Jones-Leary) and two recent Brazilian National champions (Ygor Rodrigues and Yan Lucas). There is no shortage of talent in lightweight, and in a division of 32 these are the most credentialled.

It doesn't quite tell the full story though, as there are a number of "almost there's" among the ranks: consider Renato Canuto, Leo Lara, Pedro Ramalho, Victor Silverio and Lucas Rocha– this is one division where the score doesn't quite reflect the true difficulty of winning gold, although few would disagree that the frontrunners are narrowed to a few key names such as Lepri, Levi, Canuto et al.  

Medium-heavyweight: 23

As I laid out in the medium-heavyweight preview I consider this to be a four-way race between Hulk, Rudson, Pena and Batista. The score makes it appear a little more even than that when you consider the presence of Murilo Santana (a past Brazilian champ) and Tarsis Humphreys (2010 World champ). 

Neither Matheus Diniz, Matheus Spirandelli or Gabriel Almeida scored points based on our criteria but they can be counted on to keeps things competitive. 

Featherweight: 24.25 

We scored this division before we learned about the withdrawal of 2018 World champ Shane Jamil Hill-Taylor, who was struck down with appendicitis just days out from the event. Technically his absence means the score drops to 28, which is still respectable and gives an idea of just how competitive this division is. An interesting note is now that Jamil is out, it means we will see a brand new featherweight champion crowned as there are no other returning champs. 

Standout names to keep an eye on to summit the podium include (in no particular order) two-time Pan champ Gianni Grippo, Brazilian National champ Isaac Doederlein, 2019 Pan champ Matheus Gabriel, three-time European champ Marcio Andre, plus the dangerous Brazilian National winners Rafael Mansur and Leo Saggioro. About as deep as it gets, especially when you factor in veterans such as Osvaldo “Queixinho”, and difficult to predict a clear winner.

Super-heavyweight: 24.75

All eyes are on a rematch between Mahamed Aly and Nicholas Meregali, who are the 2018 and 2017 World champs respectively. Though ranked as competitive, I think most people would agree there are a handful of names to be singled out as medal prospects. 

Meregali and Aly stand out of course, as do 2019 Pan and Brazilian champ Fellipe Andrew, two-time Pan champ Luiz Panza and the perennial Gutemberg Pereira. 

Heavyweight: 26

There is only one World champion signed up in the heavyweight division, and it's Leandro Lo. It should be noted though that Leandro has never won gold at Worlds in a weight division above medium-heavyweight, but it's encouraging to see him back down at heavyweight after attempting to capture super-heavy gold in 2018. 

What will make things unpredictable is the presence of Pan champs Kaynan Duarte, Patrick Gaudio and the re-motivated Keenan Cornelius. Add in European champ Jackson Sousa, his teammate Adam Wardzinski, and Brazilian champs Vinicius Ferreira and Dimitrius Souza– you've got a seriously competitive pack, even if Kaynan, Keenan and Leandro are favorites. 

Roosterweight: 31.25

Roosterweight has more returning World champions than any other divisions with Bruno Malfacine and Caio Terra, two-time light-featherweight champ Michael Musumeci, plus the veterans Felipe Costa and Omar Salum. Costa and Salum's medals both came over 15 years ago though, and there is no shortage of young blood. 

Consider Cleber Sousa of Atos, the 2019 Pan and Brazilian National champ. Euro champ Rodnei Barbosa is another to keep an eye on, and then there are the technicians Tomoyuki Hashimoto (2018 Pan champ) and Koji Shibamoto, a past Euro champ. The layout of the brackets makes this division a complete wildcard and nearly impossible to predict, but we gave it our best shot here. 

Middleweight: 38

It's maybe no surprise that the toughest division at Worlds is middleweight, historically always one of the most competitive and a title that has been held by six different men over the last 10 years: Isaque Bahiense (2018), Gabriel Arges (2017), Otavio Sousa (2016, 2013, 2012), Claudio Calasans (2015), Leandro Lo (2014) and Marcelo Garcia (2009-2011). Four of them are back to claim another gold, with only Lo (at heavyweight) and Marcelo (retired) missing. 

As if four World champs weren't enough, we've also got Pan champs JT Torres, Michael Liera Jr and Yago de Souza and Brazilian National champs Marcos Tinoco and Jaime Canuto. The non-credentialed list of names who could seriously shake things up is lengthy: 2018 World silver medalist Tommy Langaker, the underrated Manuel Ribamar, the up-and-coming Servio Tulio, the explosive Hugo Marques, the dangerous Dante Leon and the relatively new dark horse Alexandre de Jesus who impressed at Pans in March. 

With 28 entrants middleweight is second only to lightweight in the number of competitors, and the stacked line-up makes it unequivocally the hardest black belt division at the 2019 IBJJF World Championships. 

The 2019 IBJJF World Jiu-Jitsu Championship will take place in Long Beach, California, and matches start every day at 9am local time.