Now we know who’s in for the 2018 IBJJF Pans, we can start to make predictions. Here’s our early look at prospective champions in each male black belt division.

Brackets won’t come out until the week of the tournament, which takes place March 8-11 in Irvine, California, and so these predictions are based on recent and past performances. 

Watch the 2018 Pan Jiu-Jitsu IBJJF Championship LIVE on FloGrappling

Roosterweight

Lucas Pinheiro is a two-time Pan silver medalist, coming close to the top spot in 2016 and 2017 but losing to Michael Musumeci (6-3) and six-time Pan champ Bruno Malfacine (9-2). Neither of the past champs are there this year, leaving an open door for the 24-year-old to claim his first title in a division of only seven people. 

Light-Featherweight

Joao Miyao is the obvious choice for Pan champ this year. In a small division of only nine competitors Miyao stands head and shoulders above the competition. He is shooting for his third straight Pan title, having won in 2016 and 2017. This is his gold medal to lose. 

Marcio Andre. Photo: Hywel Teague

Featherweight 

One of the most intriguing (and hard to predict) divisions, featherweight is absolutely loaded with talent. Marcio Andre is coming off a win in the European featherweight final against Gianni Grippo and we could well see Andre make it into the final once again. However, he’ll need to get past the likes of Queixinho (who put him to sleep with a brutal loop choke in 2016), ultra-technical Jamil Hill of TLI, the gritty Gracie Barra black belt AJ Agazarm, and another Alliance technician in the form of Isaac Doederlein. 

Lightweight 

The absence of four-time Pan champion Lucas Lepri leaves a number of possibilities for a new champion. The 2015 Pan champ, JT Torres of Atos, is in the field, as is two-time Pan champ Michael Langhi (who recently scooped gold at Euros). They are the obvious favorites for gold, but there is a host of talent waiting in the wings for either of them to stumble: Masahiro Iwasaki, Vitor Oliveira, Victor Silver, Hugo Marques, Renato Canuto, Johnny Tama, Yan Lucas, and many more. 

Gabriel Arges in action. Photo: Hywel Teague

Middleweight 

Eighteen black belts will vie for middleweight gold, although two names stand out from the rest: Gracie Barra power players Otavio Sousa (going for his fourth Pan title) and Gabriel Arges (going for his first). There is a strong chance they could close out, although they’ll have to contend with Marcos Tinoco, Tommy Langaker, Dante Leon, Nathan Mendelsohn, Mike Perez, Manuel Ribamar, and the returning Yago de Souza (who broke his collar bone at Pans one year ago and has been out since). Still, the boys from Gracie Barra are favorites in this division. 

Medium-heavyweight

An interesting mix of established names and first-year black belts makes medium-heavyweight a little less clear as to who will emerge the winner. Reigning silver medalist Lucas Barbosa is back and looking for his first gold. The veterans who stand in his way are Matheus Diniz and Renato Cardoso of Alliance, while the newer black belts nipping at his heels include Rudson Tales of CTA and Horlando Monteiro of Nova Uniao. 

Leandro Lo. Photo: Hywel Teague 

Heavyweight 

Leandro Lo has been a champion at Pans every year for the last four years running. With a total of six Pan golds on his resume it is hard to imagine anyone challenging his position as ruler of this division, although 2017 silver medalist Tanner Rice is back for another attempt and has the best chance of upsetting Lo’s plans. 

Super-Heavyweight 

Always an explosive category, this year it’s a small-but-deadly seven-man bracket with the potential for some bonkers matches. Keenan Cornelius is on a roll and is the obvious favorite, but he’ll have to contend with Gutemberg Pereira, Jared Dopp, Mahamed Aly, Tim Spriggs, and Felipe Trovo. 

Joao Gabriel Rocha. Photo: Chase Smith

Ultra-Heavyweight 

In one of the biggest big-man divisions we’ve seen in a long time, 11 men will contest for gold. Defending champ Joao Gabriel Rocha returns and will likely climb the podium for his second Pan title. Last year’s silver medalist, Gustavo Dias, also returns, as does 2011 ultra-heavy champ Braga Neto, the only other previous Pan champ in this division. Ricardo Evangelista, Joseph Moku, Dany Gerard, and Otavio Nalati will all look for their first Pan gold, as will first-year black belt Casey Hellenberg. 

The 2018 IBJJF Pan Jiu-Jitsu Championship is streaming LIVE or On Demand ONLY on FloGrappling from March 8-11.