The ADCC World Championships are coming up in a matter of days and the divisions are as stacked as ever, including at -88kg. The biggest story at this weight will be the return of champion Giancarlo Bodoni, the only returning 2022 medalist at the weight, and whether or not he can defend his title. If he manages to do it, he will cement his legacy as not just the best in the world right now but one of the best to ever do it.

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The road will be even more difficult than in 2022, though, with a fresh crop of contenders all hungry to knock him off and claim their own gold. Guys like Pedro Marinho, Izaak Michell, and Josh Hinger all will be in the bracket, along with a really interesting mix of veterans and new faces.

All rankings are according to FloGrappling's Official No-Gi Rankings, at the weight of 185lbs and 205lbs unless noted.

Division Favorites

#2 at 205lbs Giancarlo Bodoni

• I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that this will be a critical tournament to the legacy and career of Giancarlo Bodoni. If he is able to successfully defend his championship, he will become the first person to ever go back-to-back at -88kg (only Saulo Ribeiro has won the division twice, 2000 & 2003) and will establish himself as a historically great competitor. If not, he will have a long road back to the top as he has to wait for two more years.
  Bodoni's success will likely come down to the success of his wrestling, where he typically relies on the collar tie-heavy style that many New Wave athletes use. He's a careful, technical, well-prepared grappler who has really shined under ADCC rules - thanks in no small part to his gsa tank outpacing most of his opponents. If he isn't able to control the wrestling exchanges, then he has the guard and scrambling to still do well but the path will become much harder.

#1 at 205lbs Pedro Marinho

• Pedro Marinho has really rounded into a top guy in the last few years and in his third appearance the Porrada Boy may finally end up champion. Few grapplers out there embody the anybody/anytime mentality better than Marinho, who despite being a -88kg guy is constantly moving up to heavyweight to face the top names like Meregali, Gordon Ryan, and more. The crazy part - he's usually very successful and has wins over guys like Cyborg, Victor Hugo, and even Giancarlo Bodoni on WNO. That win was marked by Marinho's ability to be more physical in the hand fight and control the pace.
  If he can replicate that success, he will put himself in prime position to win the entire bracket. He's also got great top pressure, disciplined positional work, and a world-class guillotine choke. The major concern for Marinho is the gas tank - those long 20 or 40 minute matches don't suit his bruising style. A few early round submissions that limit his day one energy expenditure would go a long way to helping him.

#4 at 185lbs Izaak Michell

• Izaak is one of the quiet killers in this bracket and he has really evolved in the last few years into one of the best on Earth. Izaak has developed a very powerful wrestling style, has some of the best loose passing for the division, and stellar back attacks. Overall, he's a technician and a brute who will be tough for anyone to deal with.
  Izaak first made his name as the Who's Next Champion, winning the tournament full of up-and-comers with his hours-long match with Kyle Chambers. From there, he qualified for ADCC and had the match of the tournament in 2022 against Vagner Rocha. Since then, he's picked up big wins over guys like Jacob Couch. With all of this experience, he's established himself as a name to watch for gold in 2024 - which would make him Australia's first champion.

Contenders

#6 at 185lbs Jacob Couch

• Jacob Couch had a Trials run that will go down in history, submitting everyone in the tournament to win the East Coast Trials.The Hillbilly Hammer showed off a patience and maturity that let his game shine and he made obvious strides in beating guys like Jay Rodriguez and Elder Cruz (and then followed it up with a win over World No-Gi Champion Sebastian Rodriguez on WNO).
  He's one of the best leg lockers in the tournament and is one of the best at using the outside ashi position for control. His half butterfly, shoulder crunch, and closed guard are also very serious threats. Jacob's issue has historically been winning matches when he can't submit the opponent. For him to advance to the podium, he will need to win those close matches and strategize properly for long bouts. If he can do that, the kid from Hazard, KY could be an ADCC medalist.

#10 at 185lbs Jay Rodriguez

• Jay may be a surprise to some as a "contender" per se, but I think his style and this field really make him a danger to anyone here - especially if he gets a little early momentum and that confidence begins to grow. He's got great wrestling, great scrambling, and a great motor - but really Jay's biggest strength is that he's got grit. No matter how tough the match is, Jay continues to march forward trying to find ways to win.
  He's shown some great improvements over the last few years and opened up a lot of eyes last WNO by passing Tainan Dalpra's guard and mounting him briefly. He's capable of brilliant moments - now he's got to find a way to put together the full match that will get his hand raised against the best. He's right on the tipping point of building that experience and leveling up into a real contender and it could happen as soon as this weekend at ADCC.

Darkhorses

Josh Hinger

• Josh is the only returning medalist besides Bodoni in this weight class, having won bronze in 2019. The Atos black belt has a great guillotine, solid wrestling, and tons of elite experience. While he's still going to be tough for everyone, Josh is also the oldest grappler in this division and has not been active at the elite level for a few years now. How his body is holding up with an ADCC camp will determine his ceiling here. Don't count him out - Josh upset Tye Ruotolo, the current #1 middleweight in the world, first round of the last ADCC.

#8 at 205lbs Elder Cruz

• Elder has all the tools needed to be a medalist and even a champion at ADCC. He has the best wrestling pedigree in the bracket, he has experience at the World Championships, and has improved his passing and guard a lot since 2022. Still, he stumbled at both Trials when he lost to Jacob Couch (East Coast) and William Tackett (West Coast). For him to overcome those issues and make it to day two here, he will need to limit exchanges and control the match with a strict gameplan. What would go a long way to making Cruz a gold medal threat would be a go-to submission like a darce or anaconda choke. Right now, he's usually forced to go the distance even in matches where he's comfortably ahead. The ability to get off the mat earlier and conserve energy would benefit Elder a lot.

Sleepers

Felipe Costa

• Felipe Costa, 'Laranjinha", has moved down from -99kg and the Six Blades prospect can make waves here with his solid style, long frame, and technical approach. He made his name in the gi under the IBJJF circuit but then in his first ADCC action won Trials at -99kg in South America. That was a surprising result considering he had a tough division and wasn't a favorite coming in but he showed off a lot of patience, discipline, and willpower in a series of close matches. He's in a great room of competitors and has a lot of potential as a champion.

#12 at 185lbs Ryan Aitken

• Ryan is a really interesting addition to this bracket, because despite not placing at either of the Trials he has still picked up some great wins in the grappling pro circuit, including over Big Dan Manasoiu and Jacob Couch. Clearly he can compete on the level, with strong wrestling and a huge frame for -88kg. Still, it's a red flag that he didn't place at either Trials so while he's a threat here he is going to need to perform better under the ruleset to pose a serious threat to medaling.

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