2024 ADCC World Championships Presented by FloGrappling

FloGrappling Analysts Predict How The ADCC 88kg Bracket Will Be Seeded

Corey Stockton, Joe Gilpin & Carlos Arthur Jr. make their seeding and bracket predictions for the -88kg division at the 2024 ADCC World Championships.

Jul 24, 2024 by Corey Stockton

FloGrappling Analysts Predict How The ADCC 88kg Bracket Will Be Seeded

The countdown to the 2024 ADCC World Championships is coming to an end. We're just 23 days away from biggest event in grappling at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Aug. 17-18.

As the all star brackets fill up, we're beginning to anticipate which matches we may see, which athletes will be seeded where, and what the brackets may look like.

Three FloGrappling analysts tried our hands at predicting how the brackets will be drawn, including the unpredictable 88kg division. Take a look at our best guesses below.

Corey Stockton

It was easiest to break this division up into groups and seed from there.

Giancarlo Bodoni is in a group on his own as the only ADCC champion of the bunch, and therefore the no.1 seed. Josh Hinger is the only other ADCC medalist of the bunch, and therefore the no.2.

Then it's ADCC veterans: Pedro Marinho, Santeri Lilius, Gabriel Almeida, Elder Cruz, Jay Rodriguez, Izaak Michell.

Marinho is the most seasoned veteran and the most proven of that group, and therefore a pretty clear no.3. I'm giving Michell the no.4 off of his ADCC 2022 performance, where he had a razor thin match with eventual bronze medalist Vagner Rocha.

Lilius, Cruz and Rodriguez have a somewhat equal claim to the no.5 spot, but it's going to Cruz due to his first round win at ADCC 2022. I would have given the spot to Jacob Couch, who defeated Cruz at the ADCC East Coast Trials, but things have gotten tricky with teammates and rematches.

Cruz has to face his teammate, Gabriel Almeida, no later than the quarterfinal. That means Almeida needs to be the 13 if Cruz is the no.5, or the 14 if Cruz is the no.6. But if Almeida is the 14, he would face the no.3 in the first match. The no.3 is Pedro Marinho, who Almeida faced in the South American Trials finals.

It's the same if Cruz takes the no.7. That would make Almeida the no.15, which would put him in a first round match against Josh Hinger. Almeida vs Hinger was the first round match at ADCC 2019 in the -88kg category. So Cruz is the no.5, with Couch as the no.6.

I've given the no.7 to Jay Rod, giving his teammate Chris Wojcik the no.15. And the no.8 goes to the only other ADCC veteran, Santeri Lilius.

From there, it's mostly plug and play, trying to avoid rematches with the remaining bunch: Lucas Kanard, Charles Negromante, Andre Porfirio, Felipe Costa, Ryan Aitken and Taylor Pearman. These six could end up almost anywhere in the bracket; but I tried to keep Negromante away from Almeida (South American Trials final matchup). But in reality, the no.10, 11, 12, 14 and 16 could be any of these six athletes.

Joe Gilpin

The top two are easy here - Bodoni is the returning champion and Hinger is the only other medalist, having won bronze in 2019. For the three, I went with Pedro Marinho because he’s one of the only guys who’s won a match at ADCC Worlds in the field (having made quarters in ’22) and has a win over Bodoni, making him a good pick for separation as the three.

That’s where the bracket gets a lot harder to parse through. I think that the four should be Izaak. The WNX Champ is an ADCC veteran who was very dominant in his Trials and has wins outside of ADCC over guys like Couch. If these seeds represent who the top guys here are, Izaak is worthy of that four spot.

Jay Rodriguez and Elder Cruz both have experience at ADCC Worlds, but both were submitted at East Coast Trials by Jacob Couch. I think it’s fair to keep Jay and Elder high as the no.6 & no.7 and put Jacob above them as the five. If you can go all subs through North American Trials, you probably deserve a high seed at Worlds and Jacob gets that here. Jay and Elder could be swapped but both have a teammate who gets pulled into the bracket because of them (Wojcik to the 14 and Gabriel Almeida to the 15, respectively) and I think this order makes more sense for the matchups in total.

For the eight and nine, I went with Trials winners Santeri Lillius and Charles Negromonte to face off first round. Both are bruising, physical grapplers who will meet in the center of the mat and I think it is a fair placement for both veterans. Felipe Costa was hard to seed here because of his move down in weight from -99 at Trials to -88 here, but I think he makes sense next after Negromonte and up first against Elder (another former -99).

With only three spots left, I gave the next highest seed (the 11) to Euro Trials winner Taylor Pearman to set up a match between him and Jay Rod. Since I have Wojcik pulled into the 14 because of B-Team teammate JayRod, I thought it was fair to have Ryan Aitken near that since Chris beat him at West Coast Trials and gave Ryan the 13 and a first round meeting with Izaak.

With only the 12 and 16 spots left, I gave the 12 to the more proven Andre Porfirio and the 16 to Kanard - who is the most unknown and unproven in the field.

Carlos Arthur Jr.

Giancarlo Bodoni is the obvious no.1 seed with his 2022 gold medal, facing newcomer Lucas Kanard, the ADCC Oceania Trials winner. Santeri Lilius returns to ADCC and will face Brazil Trials winner Charles Negromente, who is debuting in ADCC after many attempts over the past years. Elder "El Monstro" Cruz had a strong performance in the last ADCC and appears as the no.4 seed, matching up against Taylor Pearman. The next match on this side is a highly anticipated one, with Jay Rod facing Gabriel Almeida, a fellow Checkmat representative of Elder.

Josh Hinger enters with his ADCC bronze and vast experience as the no. 2 seed, facing Ryan Aitken in his first match. Jacob "The Hillbilly Hammer" and Felipe "Laranjinha" Costa is another opening match I would like to see in this bracket. Pedro Marinho appears as the no.3 seed with strong chances in his division, fighting against Chris Wojcik in my prediction. Izaak Michell, as an ADCC veteran, welcomes Andre Porfirio in the last match of the bracket.