The countdown to the 2024 ADCC World Championships is coming to an end. We're just 29 days away from biggest event in grappling at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Aug. 17-18.

As the all star brackets fill up, we're beginning to anticipate which matches we may see, which athletes will be seeded where, and what the brackets may look like.

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Three FloGrappling analysts tried our hands at predicting how the brackets will be drawn, including the unpredictable 66kg division. Take a look at our best guesses below.

Corey Stockton

From the top down, Diogo Reis was easiest to place; he should be the obvious no.1 as the returning 66kg champ in this bracket. 2nd Asia & Oceania Trials winner Xu Huaiqing was equally easy to place, as he's one of very few athletes in this division without a substantial track record of winning high profile competitions.

Reis' presence as the no.1 locks his teamate, Kauã Gabriel at no.9, as they will have to face off in the second round.

I would have given Gabriel Sousa the no.2 seed on merit as he's the returning silver medalist from 66kg in 2022. But that would have put the no.3, Diego Pato, on a path for a rematch with Josh Cisneros or Keith Krikorian in the quarters, so I swapped Sousa and Pato.

That means Pato, not Sousa, will face the no.15, Ethan Thomas who, like Xu, has minimal experience in elite caliber grappling.

The no.3, Gabriel Sousa, would face Gairbeg Ibragimov, the 2nd European Trials winner. There's a case to be made that Ash Williams should take the 14 in place of Ibragimov since he lost to Ibragimov in the European Trials semifinal, but Sousa and Williams recently competed at WNO 20 in October 2023; and I think ADCC will take that into consideration.

There's reason to place the 2022 fourth place winner Josh Cisneros at the no.4 seed. But Brazilian Trials winners Kennedy Maciel and Fabricio Andrey will need to face off in the second round as they represent the same team; and the no.4 and no.5 seeds are the perfect way to make that happen. That leaves Cisneros with the no.6, taking on no.11 Keith Krikorian.

Dorian Olivarez deserves his spot at no.7 after a sensational run at the ADCC East Coast Trials. ADCC veteran Ethan Crelinsten, who lost to Olivarez in the Trials semis, gets the no.8.

The 10 through 13 seeds get a bit murky. Deandre Corbe, Owen Jones, Ash Williams and Keith Krikorian could be plugged in at any one of those spots. I've separated Cisneros and Maciel given their series of bouts at Fight to Win. I separated Krikorian and Owen Jones from Fabricio Andrey for their matches against him at Honor in Italy.

Putting Jones at no.10, Corbe at no.11, Williams at no.12 and Krikorian at no.13 cuts down on the number of potential first-day rematches.

Joe Gilpin

I think the top 3 are pretty easy to seed here, with the gold, silver, and bronze returning. Because of Diogo's placement at the one, that also forces Kaua Gabriel into the 8/9 match. I chose to give former silver medalist Kennedy the 4 seed over Cisneros (despite not placing last time).

This also pushes his Alliance teammate Fabricio - himself a top ranked threat here - into the fifth seed which makes sense for him. With those two occupying the 4 & 5, I slot Cisneros into the 6th seed. Last ADCC he placed fourth but the bracket did open up nicely with Tonon taking a first round loss, so I think six is fair.

Now we start dipping into Trials winners and no one won a tougher Trials bracket here than Dorian Olivarez. He is the kid no one wants to face and the ‘bad draw’ here - even if you beat him it’s likely to be a war. After him, I gave the eight to multiple-time Trials winner Ethan Crelinsten (who only lost to Dorian at Trials).

Because of the depth of North American Trials at -66kg, I put Deandre Corbe as the ten, setting up a match with East Coast Trials champ Dorian first round. That’s unusual but I think given their track record that’s what seeds they deserve - and there’s no easy path anyway.

From there I went with Owen Jones, Keith Krikorian, Gairbeg Ibragimov, and Ash Williams in that order for 11-14. Really these could be ranked in a lot of ways but Owen won the toughest Trials (that included Ash & Gairbeg) and Keith has a lot of ADCC experience so I think they deserve to lead the pack. It will likely be Asian Trials winners Ethan Thomas & Xu Huaiqing as the final two.

Carlos Arthur Jr.

The no.1 seed goes to the charismatic Diogo Reis, who conquered the ADCC gold in 2022 after a memorable campaign. He might be up against the Chinese Huaiqing Xu, who got his spot in the main tournament after taking gold in the second Asian Trials. Next in the bracket, we can expect the veteran Ethan Crenlisten to face Kauã Gabriel, opening the possibility for a Diogo vs Kaua match-up in the second round if the latter comes out on top. 

After that, Diego Pato will be up against West Coast Trials champ Deandre Corbe, while the US' Josh Cisneros brings his fast and powerful game to face his 10th planet compatriot Keith Krikorian.

Leading the other side of the bracket, ADCC 2022 silver medalist Gabriel Sousa is the no.2 seed and will be up against Australia's Ethan Thomas. Following that, we can expect a true standing-up battle between Dorian Olivarez and Gairbeg Ibraimov. Then, ADCC 2019 runner-up Kennedy Maciel returns to the organization after conquering the Brazilian Trials and might be up against the British Owen Jones. Last but most certainly not least, Fabricio "Hokage" Andrey enters a collision course with the experienced Ashley Williams in the first round.

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